FED Rate Cut Expectations Have Changed: 20 Giant Wall Street Banks Announce New Expectations

A recently released inflation report has led to a significant shift in expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate cut schedule. The March inflation report caused a major shift in forecasts by sell-side banks and other Fed watchers, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos.

Previously, many people predicted that interest rates would be cut as early as June. But now the consensus has changed and many think the first rate cut will not happen until the third quarter of this year. There has also been a significant shift towards expectations of just one or two rate cuts this year.

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Here’s a look at the major banks’ new expectations for the first interest rate cut and the total amount of interest rate cuts in 2024:

Bank of America: December, 25 Basis Points
Barclays: September, 25 Basis Points
BNPP: July, 50 Basis Points
Citigroup: June, 125 Basis Points
Deutsche Bank: December, 25 Basis Points
Evercore ISI: July, 50 Basis Points
Goldman Sachs: July, 50 Basis Points
HSBC: June, 75 Basis Points
Jefferies: June, 75 Basis Points
JP Morgan: July, 75 Basis Points
LH Meyer: September, 50 Basis Points
Mizuho: Not in 2024, 0 Basis Points
Morgan Stanley: June, 100 Basis Points
MUFG: June, 125 Basis Points
Nomura: July, 50 Basis Points
Oxford Economics: June, 75 Basis Points
RBC: Range, 25 Basis Points
TD Securities: September, 50 Basis Points
UBS: September, 50 Basis Points
Wells Fargo: September, 50 Basis Points

*This is not investment advice.

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